@InProceedings{KunzlerBoiFerHerBre:2022:VaInIn,
author = "Kunzler, Stefani dos Santos and Boiaski, Nathalie Tissot and
Ferraz, Simone Teleginski and Herdies, Dirceu Lu{\'{\i}}s and
Bresciani, Caroline",
affiliation = "{Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)} and {Universidade
Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM)} and {Universidade Federal de Santa
Maria (UFSM)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais
(INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
title = "Variability of the Inflow at the Intraseasonal Scale and
Relationship with Precipitation from the BAM Model",
year = "2022",
organization = "American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting, 102.",
publisher = "AMS",
abstract = "One of the great concerns of the scientific community in the last
decade concerns climate change and its consequences for humanity.
The Brazilian hydric planning has faced constant challenges to
guarantee supply and energy. In the various regions of the
country, serious water shortages have been observed in recent
years, due to the scarcity of rainfall, which has become more
frequent and intense over the years. Due to its vast territorial
extension and topographic complexity, Brazil has different
precipitation regimes. From north to south we find a great
variability of climates with distinct regional characteristics.
Several meteorological phenomena of different temporal and spatial
scales act over the country, regulating the precipitation regime
of each region. Therefore, the study of changes in
hydro-meteorological data time series is of extreme importance for
the management of water resources. In this context, an analysis of
the variability of the historical series of inflowing water flows
of the main reservoirs in the country is fundamental for the
understanding of the processes involved in drought episodes, in
view of the significant impact that these oscillations can produce
on Brazilian hydric planning. It is known that the variability of
the flow in these reservoirs is closely related to the rainfall
regime of each region, which in turn is influenced by climatic
variability. Among the climatic variability stands out the
Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or 30-60-day Oscillation, which is
a mode of intraseasonal climate variability that plays a key role
in precipitation over much of South America. In addition, the
phases of the MJO, reflect on other meteorological phenomena, so
that they may intensify or weaken during its action. Based on this
theme, the present work aims to analyze, quantify and predict the
influence of MJO on precipitation and consequent hydro-energy
variability in Brazil, considering the significant impact that
these oscillations can produce on the economy of the country. In
this way, we sought to determine what is the contribution of this
oscillation to the variability of tributary flows, in the period
from 1990 to 2016, data obtained through the National Water Agency
(ANA), in order to contribute substantially to the improvement of
hydroclimatic forecasts. After the identification of the extemos
events of the historical series (positive and negative anomalies
of affluent flow) the following analyses were carried out through
the method of Wavelets, with the objective of identifying the
intensity and the temporal scale of the most expressive phenomena
acting in each reservoir of this study. Then a filter was applied
on the Wavelets in order to highlight the intraseasonal scale
(MJO) and smooth the interannual scale to identify what is the
contribution of this phenomenon for each of the regions studied.
Finally, in possession of these results, a comparison was made
between them and the precipitation simulated by the Brazilian
Global Atmospheric Model (BAM) for the same period, with the
objective of analyzing the precipitation simulations and their
influence on the levels of the country's water reservoirs. In view
of this information, the analysis of BAM simulations will be of
extreme importance in the comparison between simulations of
precipitation and the levels of the reservoirs studied, which can
contribute to the forecast and decision-making regarding the
management of water resources and thus efficiently improve
administration and investments throughout the sector, reducing the
degree of vulnerability currently faced by the country.",
conference-location = "Houston, Texas",
conference-year = "23-27 jan. 2022",
language = "en",
ibi = "QABCDSTQQW/468R6QB",
url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/QABCDSTQQW/468R6QB",
targetfile = "EGU22-8807-print.pdf",
urlaccessdate = "17 maio 2024"
}